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How to play Mighty Wild Gorilla
While the Polymarket/Yahoo Finance situation is one of the earliest examples of a severed relationship between a prediction market operator and a media entity, that doesn’t mean those “divorces” will permeate the two industries.
There’s widespread belief that old guard media companies are incentivized to feature event contract data on their sites or reference it in select publications as a way of better connecting with younger readers and viewers.
Then there are the financial implications, namely new revenue streams. Prediction market operators typically pay media companies to integrate their data while some outlets also earn referral commissions for driving new business to yes/no exchanges.
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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
How to play Mighty Wild Gorilla
On Thursday, the Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA) reported eight online gambling licences had been reissued as part of its five year-renewal plan for the sector.
This will enable them to continue legal operations in the Netherlands from 1 October 2026 through to 30 September 2031.
It is the first time since the market was launched in 2021 that licences have come up for renewal and whomever is on the final list will indicate how many operators have decided not to remain in the market.
