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The consumer battle in prediction markets is increasingly visible. Kalshi, Polymarket and newer entrants are expanding their sports products, while DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood and a host of others are investing in exchanges, distribution and market-making capabilities.
In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.
The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
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A similar scenario is playing out on the back of the MLB index introduction. Both LeagueShares and RexShares filed plans for ETFs tied to the FutureSports MLB indexes.
If approved, the funds would hold baskets of the CME-traded derivatives. LeagueShares went a step further by adding a filing for 2x leveraged MLB futures funds.
“Of course there’s already a filing for daily leveraged futures baseball ETFs — which are basically the equivalent of a corked bat with eight holes drilled in the handle that’s been dipped in pine tar,” wrote Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, on X.
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“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”
This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.
“It’s not a dark alley,” he continues. “It’s a large operator that’s regulated in other places, so it’s not the risk for the player that sometimes is implied.”