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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

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“At the African iGaming Alliance, we have been committed to moving beyond conversations about collaboration across African jurisdictions towards meaningful action,” she explained.

“And what better place to demonstrate that commitment than through player protection? The Africa Safer Gambling Week is our collaboration in action.”

On Monday, the AiA announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Association of Nigerian Bookmakers to establish closer ties on matters both in Nigeria and across Africa.

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Dahms highlighted the significant dangers unlicensed operators pose to player protection and the overall integrity of the licensed market. He cited the absence of controls such as deposit limits, identity verification and player suspension tools. 

He also called for continued rigorous enforcement efforts alongside strict regulation to safeguard consumers, adding: “Anyone who wants to strengthen player protection must therefore consistently crack down on illegal services and strengthen legal ones.”

The DSWV said the findings should prompt a thorough reassessment of official black market size estimates in Germany.